Inflation forecast improved in Uzbekistan

The Central Bank has improved its forecast for inflation in Uzbekistan, according to a press release from the regulator’s board meeting.

In November 2025, the inflation trend continued to decline, and its annual indicator was 7.5%. The main contribution to this was the slowdown in core inflation due to relatively tight monetary conditions and the strengthening of the exchange rate. In particular, core inflation in November 2025 decreased to 6.3% year-on-year. Import prices helped stabilize the inflation of non-food goods.

At the same time, inflation in the service sector, despite a slight slowdown, remains above the level of general inflation due to demand factors. In November, inflationary expectations of the population and entrepreneurs continued to decline.

By the end of 2025, overall inflation will be around 7.3%. The downward revision of the forecast is due to a stronger, lowering effect on imported inflation and inflationary expectations due to the formation of a relatively higher degree of strengthening of the national currency compared to previous estimates.

Economic activity, while maintaining a high level, forms higher growth rates than potential ones. This is evidenced by the growth of demand in the labor market, the increase in revenues from trade and paid services, as well as the volume of interbank transactions. Against the backdrop of current economic and investment activity, economic growth is expected to be around 7-7.5% by the end of the year.

Previously, the Central Bank did not change the key rate and kept it at 14%. The solution should ensure a stable decrease in inflation and minimize risks.