What inflation expectations did Uzbeks have in May?

In May 2025, inflation expectations of citizens decreased by 0.5%, follows from the data of the Central Bank.

According to the information, the indicator of the average forecast of price growth for the next 12 months amounted to 13.7%. At the same time, the median indicator decreased by 0.3% to 11.1%. The highest level of expected inflation amounted to 17.1% and was recorded in Tashkent. Jizzak and Syrdarya regions with the level of 15.1% and 14.8% were next. The expectations of the residents of Navoi and Kashkadarya, where the indicator amounted to only 11.6%, were the lowest.

In the industry sphere, expectations are arranged as follows:

• the tourism business – 11.9%;
• catering and consumer services – 12.2%;
• government agencies and the banking sector – 14.2%;
• IT – 14.4%;
• industrial enterprises – 14.7%.

In the sphere of earnings, Uzbeks with incomes above 15 million soums per month estimated the expected price increase at 16.9%, with earnings from 7 to 15 million soums – 15.7%. Citizens earning less than 4 million soums gave lower than average estimates. In 57% of cases, the main factor influencing inflation forecasts was the growth of utility tariffs. In 49% of cases the increase in energy resources was mentioned, in 37% – fluctuations in the exchange rate. Another 32% of respondents mentioned the growth of transportation costs (32%).

The expected inflation rate among entrepreneurs also increased. Thus, the average indicator amounted to 12.9%, and the median – 10.8%. By region, the highest rates were recorded in Syrdarya region – 15%. In Tashkent it amounted to 14.4%, and in Khorezm – 14.3%. At the same time, inflation expectations were lowest in Karakalpakstan, amounting to 11%. In Surkhandarya and Kashkadarya the indicator stopped at 11.4% and 12% respectively.

In the sectoral area of entrepreneurs, expectations are arranged as follows:

• handicrafts – 11.3%;
• agrarian sphere – 11.9%;
• trade – 12.3%;
• manufacturing industry – 13.7%;
• business in the transportation industry – 14.3%;

The main factor in forming forecasts, as well as for the population, in 54% of cases were tariffs for housing and utilities, in 48% of cases – growth of prices for energy carriers. For 40% of respondents such a factor was the fluctuation of the exchange rate, and for 37% – transportation costs.

Earlier it was reported that the Central Bank again kept the main rate at 14%. The regulator maintains a tight policy for the sake of reducing inflation.